The Matchday 1 encounter of the 2025/26 Champions League group stage between Manchester City (England) and Napoli (Italy) will be held on September 18 at the Etihad Stadium. Manchester City vs. Napoli: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Manchester City
The club earned its spot in the group stage by finishing third in the previous Premier League season. Manchester City is a regular participant in the Champions League and will compete in the main draw of this European competition for the 15th consecutive season. Additionally, the team won the Champions League trophy in 2023. However, the previous campaign in this tournament did not go well for the English side, as they were eliminated in the first round of the playoffs by Real Madrid (2-3, 1-3). Notably, Manchester City has suffered four defeats in their last five Champions League matches. However, the team has lost only once in nine previous home matches in European competitions against Italian clubs (4 wins, 4 draws).
Ahead of the Champions League, the club signed goalkeeper Gianluigi Donnarumma.
- The team has not lost in regular time in 36 of their last 37 home matches in the Champions League (30 wins, 6 draws).
- City players have scored at least twice in 90 minutes in 15 of their last 17 home matches in this European competition.
- At least four goals have been scored in regular time in 6 of the last 8 home matches for the English side in the Champions League.
Predicted lineup for Manchester City (4-3-3)
Gianluigi Donnarumma – Abduqodir Khusanov, Ruben Dias, Josko Gvardiol, Nico O'Reilly – Tijjani Reijnders, Rodri Hernandez, Bernardo Silva – Jeremy Doku, Erling Haaland, Phil Foden.
Defenders Ryan Ait-Nouri and John Stones, midfielder Mateo Kovacic, forwards Omar Marmoush and Rayan Cherki will miss the match due to injuries.
Napoli
The team won the previous Serie A season and will play in the Champions League group stage. For Napoli, this is their ninth participation in the main draw of the Champions League, with their best achievement being a quarter-final appearance in the 2022/23 season when they were eliminated by Milan (0-1, 1-1). Notably, the team has secured only one victory in their last five Champions League matches (2 draws, 2 losses). Meanwhile, Napoli's current scoring streak in this European competition stands at nine matches. It's also worth mentioning that in ten European matches against English clubs, Napoli has never won (3 draws, 7 losses). However, the team has suffered only one defeat in eight opening matches in the Champions League group stage (5 wins, 2 draws).
Ahead of the Champions League, the club signed forward Rasmus Hojlund.
- No more than three goals have been scored in regular time in 5 of Napoli's last 7 away matches in the Champions League.
- Napoli players have scored exactly 1 or 2 times in 90 minutes in 5 of their last 6 away matches in this European competition.
- Napoli has conceded in regular time in 6 of their last 8 away matches in the Champions League.
Predicted lineup for Napoli (4-5-1)
Alex Meret – Giovanni Di Lorenzo, Alessandro Buongiorno, Sam Beukema, Leonardo Spinazzola – Matteo Politano, Kevin De Bruyne, Stanislav Lobotka, Andre-Frank Zambo Anguissa, Scott McTominay – Rasmus Hojlund.
Defender Amir Rrahmani and forward Romelu Lukaku will miss the match due to injuries.
Referee
Felix Zwayer (Germany)
Matches – 16 (International matches, 2024/25–2025/26);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 90;
Average yellow cards per match – 5.6;
Red cards shown – 7;
Average fouls per match – 22;
Penalties – 38%.
Match Prediction: Manchester City vs. Napoli
Both teams prefer an attacking style of play and have no issues with scoring, so I expect a goal exchange in this encounter. Manchester City is very effective at home in creating chances: in their last 18 home Champions League matches, the team failed to score only once and scored less than two goals in only three of those games. Meanwhile, in only two of their last eight home games in this European competition did the English side keep a clean sheet.
Napoli also focuses heavily on attack and scores regularly even on the road: in their last 12 away Champions League matches, the team left the field without scoring only twice. However, defensively, Napoli is not always error-free: in 9 of their last 12 away matches in this tournament, the Italians have conceded, including at least two goals in five of these games.
My prediction: Both teams to score – yes
